Elliott Gue and Roger Conrad’s Complete Guide to

Energy & Income Investing

Over 50 years of combined experience in analyzing the energy markets!

THIS MONTH’S ISSUE

Energy Companies: Prospering by Doing More with Less

February 26, 2024|

› Please join us Thursday, February 29 starting at 2 pm for our live webchat. Thanks for reading. So far this year, EIA Model Portfolio recommendations are up an average of 2.4 percent, while High Yield Energy List are up 7 percent. That compares to a 3.2 percent return for the S&P Energy Index and -2.5 percent for the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index. That’s so far an underperformance of the S&P 500’s 6.9 percent, which is still dominated by the biggest stocks in the Nasdaq 100 (up 7.2 percent). But more recently, energy stocks have been closing the gap, and despite generally lackluster action in commodity prices. North American benchmark Henry Hub natural gas, for example, last week traded as low as $1.50 per million BTUs, its lowest level since early Q4 2020. One reason for the better performance of energy stocks versus the commodities is the strong Q4 earnings and 2024 guidance issued by many companies. This issue’s feature article focuses on how Model Portfolio and High Yield Energy List companies are faring, and what their numbers and guidance portend for the rest of the year. Full-year financial filings are far more extensive than quarterlies. So there are...

Live Chat

with Elliott Gue and Roger Conrad

On 03/28/2024

Live Chat with Elliott Gue and Roger Conrad

Misunderstood Merger: EQT/Equitrans is a MoneyMaker

By |March 15, 2024|

We’ve commented frequently on the industrial logic of recombining Equitrans Midstream (NYSE: ETRN) with its former parent, natural gas-weighted producer EQT Corp (NYSE: EQT). And apparently management of the two companies agrees, inking an all-stock merger earlier this week. So far, investor reaction to the deal has been underwhelming. Since the deal’s March 11 announcement, shares of EQT have dropped around -12 percent. That’s depressed the value of the offer—0.3504 shares of EQT for each share of ETRN—by a like amount. And Equitrans currently trades at a roughly 6 percent discount to the offer, as some have raised doubts that...

Oil and US Refiners

By |March 8, 2024|

Just a few weeks ago, in early January West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were trading around $70/bbl and Brent was under $75/bbl, well off their late September peaks. The primary driver of weakness in late 2023 and early this year was the view global oil balances would loosen significantly into the first half of 2024. Here’s the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimates for global crude oil supply and demand taken from the IEA’s November 2023 Oil Market Report: (Click chart to enlarge.) Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) November 2023 Oil Market Report This table lays out supply and...

Key Takeaways from Portfolio Company Earnings

By |February 26, 2024|

Last month, we highlighted portents from the Q4 results and updated 2024 guidance from four EIA Model Portfolio companies: Baker Hughes Co (NYSE: BKR), Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE: KMI), SLB Ltd (NYSE: SLB) and Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO). The key takeaway was the business environment has been better, with downward pressure on commodity prices limiting activity and borrowing costs well above those of a couple years ago. But best in class companies like these remain resilient. In fact, all four have announced meaningful dividend increases for 2024, the most sure outward sign of a business’ inner grace. Baker Hughes announced a...

Meet Our Editors

Elliott H. Gue

Founder and Chief Analyst

Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.

Roger S. Conrad

Founder and Chief Analyst

Roger S. Conrad has successfully advised income investors since the 1980s, with a nationally acclaimed sector specialty in utilities, telecommunications and energy. He’s a managing partner of Capitalist Times author of Power Hungry, independent director of NYSE-listed Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund and contributing editor to Forbes.com.

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