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THE GLOBAL TOP CAT

Bull to Bubble? Global Investors Should Pick Carefully

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Nov. 6, 2017
Global growth trades will prove to be the winners in this last phase of the bull market. But success with them will require accuracy and agility. Outperformance will favor strong stock pickers, as investment correlations that favored passive investment strategies break down while the bull market nears its end. Emerging markets should continue to outperform for the rest of the year.

The Market Investors Love to Hate

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jun. 8, 2017
China is the stock market investors love to hate. The conversations are always about what could go wrong and rarely what could, or will, go right. And yet China’s equities have outperformed emerging markets during the past one-, three- and five-year periods. For the past year, we’ve made the case that cyclicals and growth names should be the focus when investing in China.

French Elections and European Markets

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Apr. 23, 2017
Investors rightly worry that a Le Pen victory could change the euro picture overnight and cause initially hazardous reaction (e.g. European stock markets fall 20-30 percent). Other regions won’t escape such a sell off. Remember that the S&P 500 fell close to 20 percent in May 2011 when fears of Greece exiting the eurozone surfaced. Our view is less alarmist.

India’s Curse of Cash

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jan. 2, 2017
On Nov. 8, 2016, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved one more time that he’s not an ordinary politician when the government withdrew the legal-tender status of the 500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes. India’s decision to ban some currency has created problems, but only in the short term. The economy and market remain robust, and the coming volatility is an opportunity to buy.

Pivoting Defense Spending

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Dec. 17, 2016
If the new administration lives up to its promises and increases the defense budget during its time in office, current equity valuations in the industry should be sustainable. But prospective investors should remember that the new administration’s first proposed budget will be for 2018, so the defense industry’s financial results won’t receive a bump until 2019. And not all companies will benefit to the same degree.

Greece: The View from the Bog

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jul. 28, 2015
Greece’s economic and political travails have garnered an outsized amount of media coverage for a country whose gross domestic product (GDP) accounts for about 1.4 percent of the US$18 trillion EU economy. We’re in a bull market for armchair analysis of Greece’s fiscal and economic woes and the government’s efforts to negotiate with its fellow EU members. Here is the situation on the ground.

Betting on Japan

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Nov. 13, 2014
Next year, we’ll find out whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “three arrows”—fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms—will hit their target, stimulating Japan’s ailing economy and pulling the country out of stagflation.

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