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THE GLOBAL TOP CAT

Europe’s Synchronized Growth

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jul. 31, 2017

Four months into the year and the global economy is in the midst of synchronized growth that should allow it to grow around 3.5 percent this year. China’s solid growth, India’s recovery after the monetarization jitters and the eurozone’s stronger-than-expected growth have been the catalysts for the strong showing this year.

The Market Investors Love to Hate

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jun. 8, 2017

China is the stock market investors love to hate. The conversations are always about what could go wrong and rarely what could, or will, go right. And yet China’s equities have outperformed emerging markets during the past one-, three- and five-year periods. For the past year, we’ve made the case that cyclicals and growth names should be the focus when investing in China.

French Elections and European Markets

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Apr. 23, 2017

Investors rightly worry that a Le Pen victory could change the euro picture overnight and cause initially hazardous reaction (e.g. European stock markets fall 20-30 percent). Other regions won’t escape such a sell off. Remember that the S&P 500 fell close to 20 percent in May 2011 when fears of Greece exiting the eurozone surfaced. Our view is less alarmist.

India’s Curse of Cash

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jan. 2, 2017

On Nov. 8, 2016, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved one more time that he’s not an ordinary politician when the government withdrew the legal-tender status of the 500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes. India’s decision to ban some currency has created problems, but only in the short term. The economy and market remain robust, and the coming volatility is an opportunity to buy.

Pivoting Defense Spending

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Dec. 17, 2016

If the new administration lives up to its promises and increases the defense budget during its time in office, current equity valuations in the industry should be sustainable. But prospective investors should remember that the new administration’s first proposed budget will be for 2018, so the defense industry’s financial results won’t receive a bump until 2019. And not all companies will benefit to the same degree.

Greece: The View from the Bog

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jul. 28, 2015

Greece’s economic and political travails have garnered an outsized amount of media coverage for a country whose gross domestic product (GDP) accounts for about 1.4 percent of the US$18 trillion EU economy. We’re in a bull market for armchair analysis of Greece’s fiscal and economic woes and the government’s efforts to negotiate with its fellow EU members. Here is the situation on the ground.

Betting on Japan

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Nov. 13, 2014

Next year, we’ll find out whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “three arrows”—fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms—will hit their target, stimulating Japan’s ailing economy and pulling the country out of stagflation.

Taking Stock of India’s New Prime Minister

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jun. 19, 2014

India has a new prime minister after a month-long election that attracted a turnout rate of 66.4 percent and 136 million first-time voters.

There’s Value in Them Mines

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Mar. 13, 2014

Excess capacity and weak demand growth have weighed on commodity prices and soured investor sentiment toward the mining industry.

But efforts to slash capital expenditures and operating expenses should help our favorite names to dig their way out of this hole over the next two years.

Decoding the Spike in SHIBOR

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Jul. 19, 2013

Although worries about heightened systemic risk in China’s financial system appear legitimate, the People's Bank of China made its point loud and clear when it allowed the overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate to spike on June 20. Here's what it means for investors.

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