At year’s end, we like to do a detailed audit of the economic data and market trends to formulate a basic outlook for the coming 12 months.
We prefer to focus on out-of-consensus market calls–ideas most market participants view as unlikely–that we see having a 50-50 shot or better of occurring. These “surprise” events have the highest probability of prompting a major market move that can generate meaningful alpha for your portfolio.
None of these calls are set in stone. However, they form a useful framework of expectations and list of profitable market trends as we head into the new year.