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Macro Outlook

Crystal Ball 2017

By Elliott H. Gue, on Dec. 28, 2016

At year’s end, we like to do a detailed audit of the economic data and market trends to formulate a basic outlook for the coming 12 months.

We prefer to focus on out-of-consensus market calls–ideas most market participants view as unlikely­–that we see having a 50-50 shot or better of occurring. These “surprise” events have the highest probability of prompting a major market move that can generate meaningful alpha for your portfolio.

None of these calls are set in stone. However, they form a useful framework of expectations and list of profitable market trends as we head into the new year.

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