China is the stock market investors love to hate. The conversations are always about what could go wrong in China and rarely about what will go right. And yet Chinese equities outperformed other emerging markets during the past one-, three- and five-year periods.
Overseas investors must pay attention to the way proposed US trade policies will affect emerging markets. And within the ones best protected, Indian small caps are our favorite, especially as domestic reform turbulence subsides.
On Nov. 8, 2016, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved one more time that he’s not an ordinary politician when the government withdrew the legal-tender status of the 500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes. India’s decision to ban some currency has created problems, but only in the short term. The economy and market remain robust, and the coming volatility is an opportunity to buy.
If the new administration lives up to its promises and increases the defense budget during its time in office, current equity valuations in the industry should be sustainable. But prospective investors should remember that the new administration’s first proposed budget will be for 2018, so the defense industry’s financial results won’t receive a bump until 2019. And not all companies will benefit to the same degree.
Geopolitical developments will increasingly shape the global economy and how investors allocate capital. We look at two companies primed to benefit from increased defense spending in key parts of the world.
Asian equities have rallied in recent months, but many markets still trade at favorable valuations. Patient investors should focus on high-quality names in the financial and information technology sectors.
Our current outlook calls for China’s economy to grow between 6.5 and 7 percent this year. We remain concerned about how domestic demand and the service sector will cope with deflationary pressures, but the Mainland economy appears to have stabilized. Investors should remain cautious in the near term.
We explore the recent devaluation of the renminbi, analyze market’s misreading of this development and explain why we remain cautious on Chinese equities in the near term but like the financial sector over the long haul.
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