Global growth trades will prove to be the winners in this last phase of the bull market. But success with them will require accuracy and agility. Outperformance will favor strong stock pickers, as investment correlations that favored passive investment strategies break down while the bull market nears its end. Emerging markets should continue to outperform for the rest of the year.
Four months into the year and the global economy is in the midst of synchronized growth that should allow it to grow around 3.5 percent this year. China’s solid growth, India’s recovery after the monetarization jitters and the eurozone’s stronger-than-expected growth have been the catalysts for the strong showing this year.
The current policies of the ECB were designed to fight deflation and financial fragmentation in the eurozone. Currently, though, stronger economic activity, easier access to credit, lower borrowing rates and weakening deflation pressures open the door for tightening, even if only gradual in nature.
Investors rightly worry that a Le Pen victory could change the euro picture overnight and cause initially hazardous reaction (e.g. European stock markets fall 20-30 percent). Other regions won’t escape such a sell off. Remember that the S&P 500 fell close to 20 percent in May 2011 when fears of Greece exiting the eurozone surfaced. Our view is less alarmist.
Results from the recent Dutch elections removed one engine of political uncertainty in the eurozone. Will this year's remaining European electoral calendar echo this outcome and release an economy ready to accelerate?
If the new administration lives up to its promises and increases the defense budget during its time in office, current equity valuations in the industry should be sustainable. But prospective investors should remember that the new administration’s first proposed budget will be for 2018, so the defense industry’s financial results won’t receive a bump until 2019. And not all companies will benefit to the same degree.
Geopolitical developments will increasingly shape the global economy and how investors allocate capital. We look at two companies primed to benefit from increased defense spending in key parts of the world.
Demand for economic growth from both politicians and the electorate is growing, leading to increasing talk and some planning for major infrastructure projects. The move here is to focus more on the companies likely to benefit than a macro story that lifts the entire area.
Investors combing Europe for opportunities should focus on high-quality names. Adventurous readers may want to consider Spanish equities; the market trades at a discount to its European peers and could offer significant upside potential if sentiment toward Latin America continues to improve.
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