Investors rightly worry that a Le Pen victory could change the euro picture overnight and cause initially hazardous reaction (e.g. European stock markets fall 20-30 percent). Other regions won’t escape such a sell off. Remember that the S&P 500 fell close to 20 percent in May 2011 when fears of Greece exiting the eurozone surfaced. Our view is less alarmist.
Results from the recent Dutch elections removed one engine of political uncertainty in the eurozone. Will this year's remaining European electoral calendar echo this outcome and release an economy ready to accelerate?
China is the stock market investors love to hate. The conversations are always about what could go wrong in China and rarely about what will go right. And yet Chinese equities outperformed other emerging markets during the past one-, three- and five-year periods.
Overseas investors must pay attention to the way proposed US trade policies will affect emerging markets. And within the ones best protected, Indian small caps are our favorite, especially as domestic reform turbulence subsides.
On Nov. 8, 2016, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved one more time that he’s not an ordinary politician when the government withdrew the legal-tender status of the 500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes. India’s decision to ban some currency has created problems, but only in the short term. The economy and market remain robust, and the coming volatility is an opportunity to buy.
If the new administration lives up to its promises and increases the defense budget during its time in office, current equity valuations in the industry should be sustainable. But prospective investors should remember that the new administration’s first proposed budget will be for 2018, so the defense industry’s financial results won’t receive a bump until 2019. And not all companies will benefit to the same degree.
Geopolitical developments will increasingly shape the global economy and how investors allocate capital. We look at two companies primed to benefit from increased defense spending in key parts of the world.
Demand for economic growth from both politicians and the electorate is growing, leading to increasing talk and some planning for major infrastructure projects. The move here is to focus more on the companies likely to benefit than a macro story that lifts the entire area.
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