Investing Topics: Oil Prices

Energy: In the Early Stages of a Bull Market

By Elliott H. Gue on Sep. 14, 2018

For the broader market, we’ve long followed a concept we call the “volatility smile.” Simply put, broader stock market volatility is high early in the stages of a bull market, falls to low levels in the middle of a major rally and then rises again in the latter stages of a bull market. And, of course, volatility usually rises sharply during a bear market.

Neither the Bull Nor the Year Is Over, Yet

By Elliott H. Gue on Dec. 4, 2017

On only five occasions over this period has the S&P 500 given up more than 2 percent of its value in the final month and a half of the year. We’re not inclined to fight that seasonal record. Looking ahead to 2018, 65 weeks have passed since the S&P 500 last endured a correction of 2 percent or more. We’d be surprised if stocks don’t break this historic winning streak at some point in the first quarter of 2018.

China: Buying Oil

By Yiannis G. Mostrous on Oct. 12, 2017

On a price to book metric, the energy sector trades at a 50 percent discount to its 20-year average. That makes it the cheapest sector in the emerging markets universe. Our favorite company fits well with our Asia-focused investment thesis and current geopolitical trends.

Value Play Earns Higher Buy Target

By Elliott H. Gue on Oct. 11, 2017

Low leverage, plenty of cash and a high-quality asset base make this exploration and production company a winner.

Income Investors: How Much Energy Should You Own Now?

By Roger S. Conrad on Sep. 27, 2017

How long will the energy sector’s underperformance of the past several years continue? Is energy still a sector worth holding for income-seeking investors? Let’s answer these two important questions.

Look to the Midstream for Protection and Opportunity

By Elliott H. Gue on Jun. 28, 2017

Given the uncertainty and volatility in the energy sector, we prefer midstream names that offer the best leverage to volumetric growth stories and have the balance sheet strength to pursue joint ventures with cash-strapped rivals.

Crude Oil’s Recent Tumble and Next Stop

By Elliott H. Gue on May. 9, 2017

Crude-oil prices collapsed last week due to a combination of fundamental and technical factors.On the fundamental front, the rapid recovery in US oil production has been and will remain the biggest story in 2017. Odds are good (better than 50 percent) that WTI will approach the low end of our anticipated $40 to $45 per barrel price range before stabilizing.

Why Did Oil Prices Walk off a Cliff?

By Elliott H. Gue on Mar. 14, 2017

The breakdown in oil prices dominated financial headlines over the past week. WTI had ranged between $50.50 and $51.50 per barrel for much of 2017 until the commodity tumbled through this floor, the psychologically important price of $50 per barrel and the 200-day moving average of $48.67 per barrel. What happened?

US Oil Production Shifting Into Growth Mode

By Elliott H. Gue on Feb. 12, 2017

US natural-gas exports to Mexico will continue to grow over the next five years, creating opportunities for investors north and south of the border.

New Energy

By Elliott H. Gue on Jan. 19, 2017

The big story for energy markets in the first half of 2017 will be a stronger-than-expected surge in US shale oil production that keeps the lid on global oil prices. To take advantage, we’re adding a midstream processing and pipeline company to the portfolio.