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Investing Topics: Stock Market Outlook

Welcome to the Funhouse

By Elliott H. Gue on Jun. 24, 2016
An extended period of extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has distorted asset prices, resulting in some curious (and concerning) dislocations. The S&P 500 trades at historically elevated valuations usually seen during periods of robust economic growth, while some of Europe’s strongest sovereign credits sport negative yields.  

Sell in May?

By Elliott H. Gue on Apr. 27, 2016
The US economy continues to grow at a lackluster pace, first-quarter earnings have disappointed and the S&P 500 trades at stretched valuations. Although none of these factors preclude additional upside in US equities over the near term, we stand by our cautious outlook for the broader market and prefer to focus on defense.

A Tale of Two US Economies

By Elliott H. Gue on Nov. 24, 2015
Although the service side of the US economy remains healthy, manufacturing activity has weakened significantly. In fact, by one measure, the performance gap between these two segments of the economy has reached its widest point in about 15 years. We analyze this divergence and elaborate on our hedging strategy.