Investing Topics: Stock Market Outlook

Janet Yellen’s $5.36 Trillion Speed Trap

By Elliott H. Gue on Sep. 28, 2016

The velocity of money has slowed significantly since the Great Recession, blunting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stimulate the economy through quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates.

07/15/16: Portfolio Moves

By Elliott H. Gue on Jul. 15, 2016

Subpar economic growth doesn’t support the S&P 500’s inflated valuation multiples, which have reached their highest levels since the 1999-2000 tech bubble. As part of our ongoing effort to reduce risk, we exit two of our Wealth Builders Portfolio holdings.

Taking Profits

By Elliott H. Gue on Jul. 15, 2016

Welcome to the Funhouse

By Elliott H. Gue on Jun. 24, 2016

An extended period of extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has distorted asset prices, resulting in some curious (and concerning) dislocations. The S&P 500 trades at historically elevated valuations usually seen during periods of robust economic growth, while some of Europe’s strongest sovereign credits sport negative yields.

Sell in May?

By Elliott H. Gue on Apr. 27, 2016

The US economy continues to grow at a lackluster pace, first-quarter earnings have disappointed and the S&P 500 trades at stretched valuations. Although none of these factors preclude additional upside in US equities over the near term, we stand by our cautious outlook for the broader market and prefer to focus on defense.

Not a Time to Buy Stocks

By Elliott H. Gue on Apr. 1, 2016

The financial infotainment industry may have changed into its cheerleading uniform after the recent rally, but a number of factors suggest that investors should remain caution and stay hedged.

Double Crossed by the Golden Cross

By Elliott H. Gue on Jan. 7, 2016

The S&P 500 may have formed a golden cross, but this technical indicator has much different implications in the latter stages of a bull market. We also dig into the latest economic data and reiterate our call for investors to hedge their equity exposure.

A Tale of Two US Economies

By Elliott H. Gue on Nov. 24, 2015

Although the service side of the US economy remains healthy, manufacturing activity has weakened significantly. In fact, by one measure, the performance gap between these two segments of the economy has reached its widest point in about 15 years. We analyze this divergence and elaborate on our hedging strategy.

S&P 500 Poised to Head Higher

By Elliott H. Gue on May. 28, 2014

The S&P 500 has broken out to an all-time high, supported by improving US economic data and solid first-quarter results from the index’s underlying companies.