Global Growth: Rock Steady
Global economic growth continues to be respectable and broad based, with only a few laggards. The current selloff hasn’t changed this, and the synchronization of this economic growth remains intact.
Volatility and the Market Cycle
The return of volatility to US equities doesn’t mean that a bear market is imminent.
Melting Up
Unless you believe that the economy will slide into recession over the next 12 months, it’s most likely too early to call time on the bull market in US equities.
Portfolio Clean-Up
Continued market strength makes dips an opportunity to buy on the long side. However, sector and company specific developments lead us to sell a couple Wealth Builders Portfolio members and add one.
Value Follows Economic Growth
Sector rotation tops our list of what to watch, and we take advantage of current prices to sell one Wealth Builders Portfolio member and reiterate a buy on another.
Neither the Bull Nor the Year Is Over, Yet
On only five occasions over this period has the S&P 500 given up more than 2 percent of its value in the final month and a half of the year. We’re not inclined to fight that seasonal record. Looking ahead to 2018, 65 weeks have passed since the S&P 500 last endured a correction of 2 percent or more. We’d be surprised if stocks don’t break this historic winning streak at some point in the first quarter of 2018.
Tis the Season
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has logged a positive return between Nov. 15 and the end of the year 82 percent of the time. There are, however, a few measures we’re watching for weakness and opportunity.
Finding Value in an Overbought Market
The near- to intermediate-term future looks bright for utility stocks and the sector’s prospects for earnings and dividend growth. However, with the Dow Jones Utility Average making new highs, investors must consider how much of this good news the market has priced in to sector favorites.
Bull to Bubble? Global Investors Should Pick Carefully
Global growth trades will prove to be the winners in this last phase of the bull market. But success with them will require accuracy and agility. Outperformance will favor strong stock pickers, as investment correlations that favored passive investment strategies break down while the bull market nears its end. Emerging markets should continue to outperform for the rest of the year.
Are We Melting Up?
We continue to see new market leaders emerging to carry stocks higher and expect the upside momentum to carry through the year’s end. Expect value stocks to benefit the most, leading us to add a strong value-oriented auto play to the portfolio.