While the risks of today’s low-volatility stock market are clear, we continue to believe the next sell-off in the broader market will be a correction, not the beginning of a new bear market. Look for a rotation out of the growth-oriented fare and into cyclical and value groups.
Passive management works for some people some of the time. Recognizing how and when it doesn’t work is key for downside protection and proper investment allocation. Plus, we end with an update on two of our portfolio holdings.
The so-called FAANG stocks–Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet–are up an average of 28.8 percent in 2017 compared to a 7.5 percent gain for the S&P 500. These large-cap names have paced the index’s gains so far this year. Should any or all of these stocks falter, the S&P 500 could quickly lose altitude.
With little sign the US is headed for recession by the middle of next year, there’s more upside for stocks this cycle. It’s dangerous to sell out too soon and miss out on the final months of the bull market.
Although the S&P 500 appears overdue for a pullback of at least 5 to 10 percent, we remain bullish on select financial stocks and would regard any correction as an opportunity to accumulate our favorites.
Investor talk has turned against the Trump Trade, and for all the wrong reasons. While a market correction is due, look to the sectors that did well during the post-election period to perform well–making pullbacks an opportunity to buy.
Last week, the S&P 500 endured its worst one-day selloff since the immediate aftermath of Britain's surprise vote to exit the EU last summer. Although the S&P 500 gave up only 1.25 percent of its value yesterday, the decline felt more serious because the market has exhibited low volatility and traded within a tight range over the past 12 months.
Incoming data reinforce our take that the US economy has strengthened. But technical warning signs and policy concerns mean investors who invest in specific stocks and not the broader market have a better chance of outperforming.
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