A return to a more traditional US economic cycle would be good news for stocks as stronger growth and inflation drive pricing power, revenue growth and higher valuations. But watch these three signals to see if the economy backtracks.
Narrowing market leadership and deterioration in other technical indicators point to the growing risk of a bear-market correction in the first half of 2016. We also continue to monitor key US economic indicators for signs of further weakness.
Technical indicators from the last four bear markets to ravage US equities suggest that a correction of at least 20 percent could be in store for the S&P 500. At this juncture, the risk of a US recession remains low, which should limit the coming bear market's severity and duration. However, we'll continue to monitor our favorite economic indicators for deterioration.
The S&P 500’s flat performance this year belies a number of major market and economic trends that investors can ride to profits. These key themes will inform our investment strategy as we continue to assemble our shopping list for a potential pullback in the stock market.
The divergence between the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index and the S&P 500 suggests that the risk of a short-term market correction continues to grow. Savvy investors have started to put together their shopping lists to prepare themselves for this buying opportunity.
Our annual forecasts provide a useful framework for the coming year and underpin our investment strategy. However, we don’t regard these predictions as written in stone; our outlook necessarily evolves when market and economic developments warrant a change.
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