The S&P 500 may have formed a golden cross, but this technical indicator has much different implications in the latter stages of a bull market. We also dig into the latest economic data and reiterate our call for investors to hedge their equity exposure.
Narrowing market leadership and deterioration in other technical indicators point to the growing risk of a bear-market correction in the first half of 2016. We also continue to monitor key US economic indicators for signs of further weakness.
Valuations affect the S&P 500’s returns, but this impact manifests itself more clearly over the long haul. In other words, price-to-earnings ratios are a poor metric for timing the market, but a useful tool for investors looking to hold positions over a longer time frame. What does that mean for investors? The stock market looks expensive right now; historically, buying the S&P 500 at these levels would result in positive, but subpar, returns over the next 10 years
Is the stock market cheap, or is it expensive? Does it matter? Most investors have probably asked themselves these questions on numerous occasions over the past few years. Valuation concerns have become all the more pressing now that the market has climbed steadily for almost seven years.
Technical indicators from the last four bear markets to ravage US equities suggest that a correction of at least 20 percent could be in store for the S&P 500. At this juncture, the risk of a US recession remains low, which should limit the coming bear market's severity and duration. However, we'll continue to monitor our favorite economic indicators for deterioration.
Over the past month, Greece’s potential exit from the eurozone and the precipitous drop in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index have dominated the headlines. But neither event has affected our market outlook or the picks in our Wealth Builders Portfolio. We run down all the economic news that’s fit for profit.
Technical factors and weakness in the US economy suggest that the risk of a 5 percent to 10 percent pullback in the S&P 500 continues to rise. As a precaution, we’ve exited a number of positions in recent months, usually for a profit. We highlight several stocks we’re watching for potential inclusion in our Wealth Builders Portfolio.
We analyze the latest technical trends and economic data to identify three key investment trends that will inform our strategy over the coming quarters. These takeaways will inform our effort to repopulate the Wealth Builders Portfolio after taking profits on a number of winners.
Our annual forecasts provide a useful framework for the coming year and underpin our investment strategy. However, we don’t regard these predictions as written in stone; our outlook necessarily evolves when market and economic developments warrant a change.
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